Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 14.414000 16.485485 18.718354 21.300229 24.199394 27.350240 31.029743
2025-02-23 11.174374 13.937693 17.148998 21.141062 25.953862 31.551257 38.535336
2025-03-02 9.705261 12.795673 16.562786 21.463341 27.637178 35.121381 44.841396
2025-03-09 8.446730 11.708896 15.859749 21.482337 28.846231 38.102657 50.549628
2025-03-16 7.399093 10.721979 15.112914 21.274544 29.620485 40.443508 55.435645
2025-03-23 6.684411 10.083597 14.731021 21.462093 30.856060 43.378114 61.181796
2025-03-30 6.246152 9.770093 14.737669 22.138214 32.743811 47.227910 68.297017
2025-04-06 5.616452 9.106677 14.177642 21.944411 33.366571 49.337537 73.088162
2025-04-13 4.838775 8.138582 13.082215 20.868628 32.620816 49.443947 75.016587
2025-04-20 4.550852 7.897065 13.042422 21.340050 34.139710 52.825468 81.752363
2025-04-27 4.278368 7.651046 12.968371 21.738881 35.551292 56.093798 88.447073
2025-05-04 3.923499 7.234166 12.587437 21.620035 36.143751 58.148533 93.402946
2025-05-11 3.559406 6.775152 12.113258 21.334003 36.480168 59.867783 97.997201
2025-05-18 3.300268 6.474417 11.875782 21.413780 37.397164 62.517927 104.141760
2025-05-25 3.096942 6.252013 11.748254 21.657216 38.575856 65.608959 111.081290
2025-06-01 2.880412 5.984026 11.518588 21.704397 39.420620 68.192216 117.310370
2025-06-08 2.644229 5.655501 11.153896 21.485228 39.791003 70.006694 122.355574
2025-06-15 2.489508 5.469295 11.029700 21.677681 40.866080 73.008940 129.444009
2025-06-22 2.412997 5.430921 11.173522 22.358793 42.821561 77.551281 139.253293
2025-06-29 2.229912 5.158212 10.854504 22.163627 43.205495 79.444774 144.682333
2025-07-06 1.958202 4.673554 10.089749 21.078001 41.916112 78.399744 145.053463
2025-07-13 1.885961 4.608604 10.142742 21.553728 43.503338 82.406017 154.261220
2025-07-20 1.810226 4.528763 10.159073 21.956145 44.968978 86.250041 163.321781